Over the past few years, waiting for a tech IPO felt a lot like a conversation with the White Queen from Alice in Wonderland… always promised, never quite arriving.
“Jam tomorrow, jam yesterday, but never, ever jam today.”
If you’ve been holding stock options at a startup, 2021 probably feels like a lifetime ago. That year saw an IPO boom, but since then it’s been delay after delay. The IPO could have been last year. Maybe it’ll be next year. But somehow, it’s never today.
Will 2025 be the year that we see tech stock offering trends?
The IPO Market’s Long Winter
After the historic IPO surge in 2021, the public markets cooled off significantly in 2022. And it didn’t bounce back in 2023, either.
While the number of IPOs last year returned to more normal levels, the dollar volume of those IPOs (the actual size of the offerings) remained far below average.
Simply put, the big names were still sitting on the sidelines.
Fast-forward to 2025, and the big question is: Will this be the year that major tech IPOs return?
The First Test: SailPoint
On Valentine’s Day, SailPoint became the first major tech IPO of the year. SailPoint is particularly interesting because it’s part of a cycle we’re seeing with private equity firms. Thoma Bravo took SailPoint private, then brought it back to the public market… a move that could set the tone for other companies in their portfolio.
If SailPoint performs well, it could set the tone for other tech IPOs this year.
But if it stumbles? It could spook investors and delay the return of IPO momentum even further.
The Big IPOs to Watch in 2025
There’s reason to believe 2025 could be the year that big IPOs make a real comeback.
Here are the most anticipated IPOs potentially shaping tech stock offering trends in 2025:
- CoreWeave – The AI cloud computing firm is reportedly preparing to file for a $4 billion IPO.
- Genesys – The customer experience software provider confidentially filed for an IPO in late 2024.
- Chime – The fintech company is expected to go public after submitting a confidential filing.
If these companies go public and perform well, we could see a true reopening of the IPO market.
Lessons from the Past Few Years
If you’re a tech employee with stock options waiting for an IPO, the past few years have been frustrating. But looking at historical data can give some perspective.
A report from WilmerHale includes a bar graph that tells the whole story. In 2021, IPOs hit a crazy, unsustainable peak. The number of IPOs and their total value more than doubled even the best years from the past two decades. That wasn’t normal—it was a bubble.
Then came the crash. The number of IPOs in 2022 and 2023 fell dramatically. Even in 2023, when IPO numbers started to recover, the total dollar volume remained well below average.
The big takeaway? The market isn’t broken—it’s just taking time to reset.
What Tech Employees Should Keep in Mind
If your company is planning an IPO in 2025, you might be wondering what it means for you. A few things to consider:
- Expect volatility. Even if IPOs pick up, pricing and post-IPO performance could be unpredictable.
- Watch tax implications. An IPO can create a significant tax event, especially if you hold RSUs or stock options.
- Liquidity isn’t immediate. Lock-up periods often prevent early employees from selling shares right away.
Is This Finally the Year?
We can’t guarantee it… But 2025 shows real promise.
If the first few IPOs of the year go well (starting with SailPoint and moving into CoreWeave, Genesys, and Chime), we could see more tech companies follow.
Still, it’s too early to declare the IPO market fully open for business. The jam might finally be here, or it might still be just around the corner.
Want to talk about what an IPO means for your stock options and taxes?
Book a call with KB Financial Advisors. We help tech professionals like you understand stock compensation, plan for liquidity events, and minimise tax burdens… no matter when the jam shows up.
